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Ukrainian elections -- Another drama, but who is winning? (Issue: 8)

Viktor Yushcenko:

Ukraine is facing yet another election on September 30th following the parliamentary dissolution on April 02. The dissolution itself was triggered by the defection of 11 deputies from the President Yushcenko?s Our Ukraine Party to the ruling coalition led by Viktor Yanukovich from the Party of Regions. At the time of dissolution, Yanukovich was the prime minister and his party commanded the parliamentary majority.  So which way will the new elections turn? Will Yanukovich secure 2/3 majority which will enable him to change the constitution?

Main actors:
Viktor Yushcenko: Incumbent president since 2004 December and the leader of Our Ukraine Party
Viktor Yanukovich: Prime Minister prior to the parliamentary dissolution and the leader of the Party of Regions
Yulia Tymoshenko: Former Prime Minister prior to Yanukovich and the leader of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc.

Ukraine?s strategic location between Russia and the Western Europe, its vast petroleum resources and patchy relations with Russia make Ukrainian elections a matter of considerable interest. Amongst break-away republics from the former Soviet Union, Ukraine must be the most painful to part with for the Russians. Ukraine used to be a major part of the Soviet military equation and the home for Soviet missiles and nuclear weapons. Ukraine also was a major industrial base for the Soviet Union with its energy, steel, ferrous & non-ferrous industries and power generation. Russia?s desire to have some influence on Ukraine therefore comes as no surprise.

The issue now is who is likely to win the elections and what would be Ukraine?s political destiny.  Policies of Yushcenko and Yanukovich are not necessarily poles apart except in the areas of foreign relations and foreign policy. Yushcenko is west leaning and has aspirations to join the EEC. He also wishes to maintain closer ties with the N.A.T.O and the US. In contrast, Yanukovich is pro-Russian and views the NATO with distrust. It is alleged that Russians are supporting Yanukovich camp financially and otherwise.

Yushcenko became the president in December 2004 with 52% of the vote after a hotly contested election with Yanukovich. The election was marred by wide-spread allegations of vote rigging, intimidation and even a poisoning of Yushcenko. Following his victory Yushcenko appointed Yulia Tymeshenko as the prime minister. After mere seven months, he dismissed Tymeshenko government and signed a memorandum with Yanukovich and appointed the latter as the premier. Yanukovich however engineered the defection of deputies from Yushcenko?s party in an attempt to secure 2/3 parliamentary majority. When 11 of Yushcenko?s deputies defected, Yushcenko cited imperative mandate of the constitution (Article 83 clause six) which requires the deputies to remain in the party they were elected, dissolved the parliament and called for fresh elections.

While Yanukovich is indeed in breach of the imperative mandate, his party was due to be in power until 2011. Besides, provisions of imperative mandate and remedies for its breach were not quite clear in the constitution. Most view Yushcenko?s action as heavy handed and appears to be prompted by fear of Yanukovich establishing 2/3 majority in the parliament which gives him extensive power of governance. A 2/3 majority would help a constitutional change and make Yushcenko a lame-duck president.

From election fortunes perspective, Yanukovich is likely to win the majority of the vote and potentially may secure more seats than he originally enjoyed. His support base is in the populous eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian sentiments run high. The eastern Ukraine is the home for ethnic Russian population. Apart from the alleged support from powerful friends in the Kremlin, Yanukovich enjoys support amongst disillusioned Ukrainians themselves. Yushcenko?s dismissal of Tymeshenko government, appointment of Yanukovich whom he originally called a corrupt politician and the under-delivery of orange revolution over promises has created a sizeable population of disillusioned populace. However, Yanukovich is also unlikely to secure the much coveted 2/3 majority as many Ukrainians are less than happy with Yanukovich?s alleged Russian connections and bribing deputies to instigate crossovers.

Against this backdrop, Yulia Tymoshenko?s likely post elections role emerges as a factor of some significance. Yulia Tymoshenko is widely regarded as an honest politician. In fact it was her attempts to reopen privatisation deals and populist moves such as price control on fuel and other essential commodities that triggered her dismissal. Given her animosity towards Yanukovich it is highly unlikely that she will throw in her lot with Yanukovich. Her electoral chances are also relatively slim due to her economic policies during her time as the premier. She has also antagonised Russia following a recent article published by the Foreign Affairs journal ("Containing Russia" May-June 2007).

With none of the contestant likely to secure 2/3 victory, all contestants will be back to square one or somewhere close to square one. Yanukovich will however emerge victorious with the highest number of seats but short of the elusive 2/3 majority. According to many pollsters, Yanukovich is expected to muster close to 35% support, while Yulia Tymoshenko?s party and Yushcenko?s party expected to secure 20% and 15% respectively. Together with the Communist party, he may end up being the Premier once again. There may even be a possibility Yanukovich may even enjoy an extended term having secured majority two instances already. While squabbling may continue, it is appropriate to evaluate Ukraine?s likely colour under Yanukovich.

Yanukovich may indeed have some friends in the Kremlin but he has been singing from a different hymn sheet of late. He remains less impressed with the NATO but appears to see the EEC in a positive light. He appears to be keen to join the World Trade Organisation. To his credit, Yanukovich has always maintained a healthy distance with Russian oligarchs. For instance, Ukrainian industries have remained amongst locals even after privatisation and petroleum riches remain largely within the state through state controlled companies such as Ukrnafta.

All is therefore not bad for Ukraine even if Yanukovich secures the highest seats and re-elected to be the premier. Yanukovich is aware of Russia?s continued and unavoidable influence in the region and its former republics. Both Yanukovich and Yushcenko are aware of the inter-dependence between the two nations. After all, Russia is still Ukraine?s biggest trading partner and so far this year trade between the two has grown 38% YoY to US$7.9 billion. Russia, if dealt with carefully could be a promising business ally rather than an adversary. Co-operation with Russia would not only help Ukraine?s businesses but also ensure undisrupted gas supply to the Western Europe. Calm political waters are always better for business.

What is required however is Ukraine to have a clear legal and regulatory system that ushers a climate of transparency. Ukraine also desperately requires a less bureaucratic officialdom and laws that ensure contract enforceability. Those were the promises Yushcenko failed to deliver and realities Yanukovich never grasped. Despite political wrangling Ukraine has prospered at a healthy 7% GDP growth. The populace is waiting for the saner counsel to prevail after the election in what would result in yet another hung parliament.

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