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The market has certainly changed since brexit

Published: 10:11 13 Oct 2016 EDT

no_picture_pai

The market has certainly changed since brexit - you always have to be aware of change and change strategy if needs be.

At the two seminars Friday and Monday we discussed this a lot and I am currently working my way through my portfolio. I have more than 65 stocks so it takes some doing! (I have to have that number due to size of pot).

Which stocks stand to gain from a weak pound and which might lose?

I'm no accountant so just going through the last statement from each co looking at what they say about it. It looks like a weak pound is here to stay for a while. Some shares are going down and some are going up dependant on how the market perceives its currency risk.

Some are hedged but what about next year? It's time to be ruthless and ditch shares that are going to continue to be under pressure.

The hardest thing with share trading is be prepared to ditch shares you've come to like.

If sentiment or conditions have changed action must be taken and shares sold. Again at seminars I have met people who just won't sell losers or shares they are in love with and this is the road to losses. (See my new book "Trade Like  A Shark" for more.


So overall current strategy is caution. I've raised quite a bit of cash, topsliced here and there, cut exposure to any leveraged spreadbets and repositioned.

Care is simply needed at the mo and the buy button should only be pressed when sure.

Any new buys will come under my new fairly strict "get out quick" policy if they start to go down and new buys only made when I can see a lot of buyers on level 2 and even better if I can bag the sell price using DMA to get a trade off to best possible start.

Just a word for those who came to seminar/s ! I managed a nice gain on the live short on Boo from 116 through to 104 (didn't manage to get the 100 but as we said on the day the target was 105 and a lovely quick money maker)!

And a trade I didn't put on the site as I thought too high risk was a short in QP. which has made me more than £5,000 - I took some profits live at the seminar but just to let you know  holding onto the rest of the short and put a stop in at 50.

So onto buys first.

I like the look of tiddler LPA .

Profits are heading higher and they seem in a good state with the shares looking cheap.

And I do like buying shares that have great statements and I love this sentence from LPA:

"Further to our previous statement which confirmed we entered the year at a gallop LPA is now able to confirm it is still galloping and that current market expectations for the year as a whole are likely to be exceeded."

  I love buying statements like this as a good chance next results are going to be good, pushing the share price higher.

A small company but one that looks like it is going places.

We looked at Photo-Me (PHTM) at the follow up seminar on Monday as it had gone down and we figured  it was selling after a massive dividend payout as stops got hit and others sold thinking something was wrong.

Indeed can be a good strategy to buy a share a couple of days after a big ex div. I bought on direct access at the sell price. Great management at this company and a massive cash pile hence the large dividend just paid out. Always a lovely buy on any dip. In for longer-term.

I've bought some Hollywood Bowl (BOWL) - Like the look of this one - it's the largest ten pin bowling operation in the UK.

Customers seem very happy indeed a number of people who came to the seminars said they had been and loved it.

A lot of the revenue comes from one armed bandits and the food and drink offerings. The menus look good, designed to please customers but also offer good mark up. Looks like they are going to buy up others.

Refurbishments pay off attracting more revenue and they are going to refurbish a number. I reckon there is a lot more profit to go for here and my intention is to buy, tuck away in ISA and forget unless it tanks or something goes wrong.

I got mine at the sell price using DMA (come to a seminar to find out how to do it!) getting 2,000 at 165.25   Strike!

A trading statement yesterday showed the company is nicely on track and I was bowled over by it so bought a few more higher around the 170 mark. I think 250p within a year plus divis will do me.

I talked above about getting into companies favoured by the weak pound and out of those that aren't. Here's one that is favoured.

I've bought some Burford Capital Group (BUR) - a finance firm focussed on law - and this one keeps going up. And it is a big beneficiary of the weaker pound.

It looks wonderful: every figure here is booming upwards and there doesn't seem much to stop it going up. However given the rise I will be ruthless and out fast should it go down.

Tritax Big Box (BBOX) continues to look a wonderful long-term hold. It's got a great market, excellent management and keeps on raising money and spends it well.

I've taken part in the new BBOX  share offering and asked for more too. Let you know how many new shares I got next time. One for the bottom drawer and enjoy the dividends.

I've shorted a few shares (bet on them to go down). These short ideas are short-termish ideas and bear in mind I may already be out by my next report. I'm just saying.

Devro (DVo) is helped by the weak pound. It makes sausage casings but its last report looked like a pig in a poke. Massive debt (more than 5x profit) - and weaknesses in many countries including Australia and China means I can't see where any massive growth is coming from. I think it should be rated nearer 200p than 250p.

Mysale (MYSL) is another I have shorted. Nothing wrong with it actually - it's just that the market cap has got way too high compared to its actual figures and even forecast figures. It's one I'd consider buying at some point - but for now it looks a bit high.

Smart Metering (SMS) looks too high on my metrics so I have also shorted that one - looking for about 40 points dip on this one.

PZ Cuzzons (PZC) has had a good run but now looks overdone and a fall likely imo. It's not doing badly but I can't see where any extra growth is coming from and Nigeria where it does a lot of its business is still challenging.

And I've also shorted some FTSE - it has been hitting highs so seems worth a go around here. If it heads up through highs I can always quit.

As I mentioned above shorts are tricky things and I tend to get out fast if they start to go wrong. So I imagine these shorts for now as pretty short-term - if they get into any decent profit I'll stick stops on at break even so I can't do too much damage because with a short potential losses are unlimited!


I've taken profits and losses on a few trades. Part of the reason is to go more into cash but the other reason is market just doesn't like them. If I buy a share and it just doesn't go up within a few days I get suspicious of it and now tend to quit fast at breakeven or small loss/profit.

I had bought into the motor sector because it looked so cheap but you have to be prepared to change your mind when the market doesn't agree.

All shares in the sector looks cheap but market feels brexit will stop the buying of cars as prices will rise. I don't agree but no point fighting for the moment. Yesterday Vertu produced a very decent statement but the market still is worried.

So I am out for the mo so Look has gone for a profit of £1,012 and Motr for a profit of £81. At some point soon I suspect sentiment will change and will look to get back into the sector especially as no surprise if one tries to take over another on the cheap.

With the currency drop despite looking cheap, and despite buybacks and tips the CCT shareprice refuses to go higher and so I have sold  for the moment taking a profit of   £895. Again you have to be prepared for mind change (confirmation bias see new book) and the market thinks it will pay more for product. Shame as I do like it.

Again, sentiment will change at some point and when it does they will rocket up but in the meantime it seemed like dead money in a tight range. Though share buybacks should keep a floor. Also gone is serv for a profit of £430. That's fine as it was only a shorter-term idea.

The airline sector is in crash mode on the lower pound and so I quit Flyb for a profit of £451. Again the sector will recover but it would be brave to try and find the turning point - would rather wait for an obvious recovery before hopping on board. I sliced some more Fran for a profit of £1,510 - will hold the rest longer-term unless it tanks. Sold half Sct for a profit of £208.   All that has raised a lot of cash will I'll leave on the side for now.

Some shares in the portfolio continue to climb they include BBOX, Osirium Tech, Dignity and a dividend too, Cyprotex. ETO  continues its mega rise. Yu Group up well and expect long-term hold with nice dividends.

NCC is on a big kick upwards.  GVC has risen massively which is great as I topped up a couple of weeks ago as reported here. Total Produce really going for it.   Shorts in EMis and AA going very well though I'm getting closer at the taking profits stage on both.

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I bought some small Shoe Zone (SHOE) after a massive plunge in its share price has taken it right down to the 140 level.

This is high risk as a trading statement is due soon and the price action tells us it might not be good. However I've taken the punt based on the sell off bringing it down to 6x forecast and it also has net cash.

So it is unlikely to go bust but it could blame the weather for poor shoe sales and the weak pound means its costs will have to go up.

The question is whether this is all in the weaker price or not. If not, it is high risk and it could tank further. Hence, high risk! One suspects a 20% drop or 20% rise is on the way. I'm only looking for a rise back up to 175 ish.

I made a couple of spreadbet shorts for the high risk spreadbet fund!  First is BOO - made a lovely turn on it live at Monday's seminar from 117 to 104 and this afternoon I'm trying it again having just got a short in and again looking for a dip to 105. However.. it is on a roll so any move above 120 and out to take a loss.


And I've just shorted some Fever-Tree (FEVR)

Brilliantly run company, but it's had an amazing run and would be a surprise if it didn't have one major dip. It is on the high risk list because there is an outside chance of a bid and I couldn't get a guaranteed stop on it. I'm looking for a dip down to the 900 level at least, poss 850. At that price I would consider switching to long. I'd be out at an obvious break above 1000.


Xeros sit around 250 and seems ok with the market melee.

  Instem has really cracked on with a massive rise to the 320 area wasn't expecting such a fast move up, it was almost tempting to take a huge profit but will resist and wait for more. -

Cambridge Cognition (COG) has proved a real cracker and is on a nice uptrend and today announced another contract.
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