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Petropavlovsk’s long term outlook is extremely bright

Last updated: 05:40 27 Nov 2009 EST, First published: 06:40 27 Nov 2009 EST

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As paper currency is debased, inflation fears mount and central banks continue to accrue gold, the price of gold is being propelled towards the US$1200 mark and it is no surprise share prices of gold miners do very well.  Those with steady production are faring well however those able to ramp up production like Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk (LSE, POG) - formerly known as Peter Hambro Mining - the long term earnings outlook is extremely bright.

For Petropavlovsk 2009 has been a year of transition.  A change of name followed a change of listing as shares moved from the AIM market to the Official List which has increased the company profile and visibility of shares.

However these events have not taken management’s focus away from the source of real shareholder value and during the opening 9 months of this year the company produced almost 30 percent more gold than they did in the corresponding period of 2008.

Indeed management have recently stated that they confident of achieving a full year target of 500,000 ounces of gold for this year and central to their belief is developments the group’s Pioneer mine.  This year to the end of September helped by intensive mining at higher grade ore zones, the Pioneer mine increased production by almost double.

But it would seem that the best is yet to come from Pioneer.  During September a second production line was successfully commissioned at Pioneer and what’s more a third line has been brought forward to March 2010.  Pioneer is well on its way to peak production.  

Elsewhere at the group’s other main mine Pokrovskiy, production came in ahead of 2008 also, albeit not so emphatically.  Due to technological improvements, recovery rates during the third quarter of 2009 rose to 86% up from the second quarter’s 84%.  



Although output today looks robust, investors are undoubtedly being drawn by the potential production of tomorrow and worries over Petro’s Russian focus are evidently subsiding. 

The Malomir project (where reserves and resources amount to over 5 million ounces) is on track for commissioning in the second half of 2010; whilst production at Albyn, which is scheduled to begin during 2011, will also provide a marked a boost to output levels.

It’s not just gold that Petropavlovsk is focused on.  Earlier this year, at a time when M&A levels were low, the company acquired Aricom, an iron ore mining company.

The acquired assets provide Petro with greater exposure to the global economic recovery and with news that the development of the purchased K&S iron ore project is set to be largely bankrolled by the Chinese XY Group, the move is looking like a shrewd piece of business.  According to Peter Hambro, this part of Petro’s business could overtake their gold business.

From a valuation perspective, despite the terrific share price run of late, the forward price earnings ratio of 23 times (dropping to 15 times in 2010) is arguably cheap when compared to other gold miners.

To summarise, Petro’s burgeoning gold production profile and operational nouse as well its expanding commodities exposure mean earnings are perfectly placed to cash in on current policies of central banks and the prevailing economic recovery.

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