Begbies Traynor - Latest Red Flag Alert Report for Q2 2020
Seven consecutive quarters of rising financial distress leaves 527,000
· Seven consecutive quarters of increasing financial distress recorded - longest period since start of 2014
· 527,000 businesses in "significant" financial distress - increase of 33,000 since start of year
· Significant financial distress rises 9% year on year, with real estate sector rising 19%
The latest Red Flag Alert research for Q2 2020 has recorded seven consecutive quarters of increased financial impairment resulting in a record 527,000 businesses in significant* financial distress at the end of
This newly published research from
Our own data shows there were 18,107 CCJs lodged against companies during March, April and May in 2019, with only 10,766 lodged in the same period during 2020, a fall of more than 40%. The situation is even more profound with regard to the more serious winding up petitions. During March, April and
Even though all 22 sectors (measured by the Red Flag Alert research) showed an increase in significant distress, it is likely that the true impact of the coronavirus pandemic will only become apparent during the third and fourth quarters of 2020 as government support initiatives are unwound and courts fully reopen so that enforcement action can be taken.
"The latest figures from our Red Flag Alert research show that there is a dam of company financial distress waiting to break upon the
"With government initiatives to support businesses now winding down, we will start to see the true impact of coronavirus on the
"It is likely that this situation will get worse for many businesses before it gets better, but those that can operate and adapt to these conditions will survive the flood and live to prosper on the other side."
In the last quarter alone more than 17,000 businesses have fallen into distress, with 6% more commercial builders (2,466 Q1 2020, 2,602 Q2 2020) and 4% more house builders (6,633 Q1 2020, 6,871 Q2 2020) in significant financial distress.
The deteriorating financial performance of the real estate sector is brought into sharp focus with a 19% increase in significant financial distress between Q2 2019 (49,549) and Q2 2020 (58,844), with a further 4% increase between Q1 2020 (56,482) and Q2 2020 (58,844). The construction sector also exhibited poor financial performance with a 9% year on year increase in distress (62,563 Q2 2019, 67,917 Q2 2020) and a 4% quarter on quarter increase (65,564 Q1 2020, 67,917 Q2 2020).
Practically all sectors are showing worrying increases in financial distress, particularly those dependant on consumer income. At the end of Q2 2020 almost 16,000 automotive businesses were in distress - an increase of more than 1,000 since the same time in 2019 (14,792 Q2 2019, 15,858 Q2 2020). Many of these businesses sit within the automotive supply chain, which has a stronghold in the
Not surprisingly sports and health clubs suffered disproportionately and over the past year more than 1,000 additional businesses within this sector have encountered significant financial distress. There are now almost 10,000 of these businesses adversely affected at the end of Q2.
However, the extensive Government support measures have masked the true extent of the distress within this sector, as well as the hospitality and retail sectors, and is only likely to become apparent once the Furlough scheme is removed.
Bars, Restaurants and Retail
Despite the ONS reporting a 20% increase in online retail sales during May much of the retail sector has felt the negative effects of coronavirus since the start of the year. The number of online retail businesses in distress has increased by 7% (9,117 Q4 2019, 9,756 Q2 2020) since the start of the year, with a 7% (3,365 Q4 2019, 3,600 Q2 2020) increase for fashion retailers and 6% (17,771 Q4 2019, 18,814 Q2 2020) increase in high street retailers.
For the Bars and Restaurant sector the news is similar. A 6% increase since the start of the year and a 4% increase in the last quarter (17,620 Q4 2019, 18,011 Q1 2020, 18,750 Q2 2020). Unsurprisingly, pubs bear the brunt of that increase with a 6% rise in the number of businesses in significant distress in the last quarter alone, and a 9% increase since the start of the year (4,976 Q4 2019, 5,108 Q1 2020, 5,420 Q2 2020).
"There has been unprecedented company support measures from the
"Many of these support measures will have simply delayed the inevitable, with the can being firmly kicked down the road. Many businesses will have to deal with a toxic mix of reduced sales and increased levels of debt, plus the complications of dealing with staffing levels that cannot be supported by the level of business going forward.
"Change has been coming for some time before coronavirus, and after one and a half years of consistently increasing levels of distress, this pandemic has accelerated the rate of change. We have already seen some businesses in the affected sectors make significant alterations to their structures but unfortunately we expect to see many more cease to trade in the coming months. However a crisis can be an opportunity to strengthen and create more sustainable jobs in the future but undoubtedly this restructuring will be painful over the next few years."
- Ends -
1'Significant' distress is those businesses with minor CCJs (of less than
2 'Critical' distress are those businesses with minor CCJs (of more than
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About Red Flag Alert
Red Flag Alert has been measuring and reporting corporate financial distress since 2004, and over that time has become an industry benchmark of the underlying health of companies across every sector and region of the
Through its unique algorithm, the Red Flag Alert measures corporate distress signals, drawing on factual legal and financial data from a wide range of relevant sources, including intelligence from the
The release refers to the numbers of companies experiencing 'Significant' problems, which are those with minor CCJs (of less than
Red Flag Alert is commercially available to all businesses, on an annual subscription basis, to help them better understand risk and exposure and help prepare them for the future. Further information about Red Flag Alert can be found at: www.redflagalert.com
Economically active businesses exclude those that are flagged by companies house as being, Non-trading, Listed for Strike off / Strike off pending, Insolvent or Dissolved. Companies where there is insufficient information available for RFA to assign a health rating are also excluded.
Notes to editors
The group's services include:
Business recovery and financial advisory
Corporate and personal insolvency - we handle the largest number of corporate appointments in the
Corporate finance - buy and sell side support on private company transactions.
Financial advisory - forensic accounting and investigations, debt advisory, business and financial restructuring, due diligence and transactional support.
Property advisory and transactional services
Valuations - valuation of property, businesses, machinery and business assets.
Property consultancy, management and planning - building consultancy, commercial property management, specialist insurance and vacant property risk management, transport planning and design.
Transactional services - sale of property, machinery and other business assets through physical and online auctions; business sales agency; commercial property agency focussed on northern and eastern
Further information can be accessed via the group's website at www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/investor-relations
This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the
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