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Naked Trader - About to go away in May

Naked Trader - About to go away in May

MARKETS

Well we are into the summer period which is notoriously tricky, as they say, go away in May (which I am about to do!) 

Pretty glad I sold part of everything recently as I mentioned last time.

As you know winding down for a summer away in California. 

While the FTSE's been doing okay the mid and small caps haven't and I am sure many of you have seen the value of your portfolios fall.

Some of it appears to be due to a mass broker sell with the good sold along with the bad. Usually when this happens the good ones eventually bounce back.

It's always hard seeing some profits eaten away. Even harder to know whether to stick or twist.

I think there is always a sensible half way house which is what I've done which is topslice/sell stuff, go into reasonable cash but keep some of the longer-term good ones.

And maybe try and follow markets down with some shorts keeping tightish stops on them.

Of course there is no right or wrong answers. Dealing with the market is like trying to reason with a pissed alcoholic.

And there is no way anyone can get in at the top and out at the bottom.

I've found over the years while I make good money over time, at some points total values can sink but usually they rise again. It actually often works out holding onto the good one as their values eventually come out.

Anyway I can't advise you but seems reasonable to have at least some cash over the summer and take it easy.

It's not a given the market will fall - who knows? It could equally push on up. So I'll continue to try and gently follow it.

But given I'm away for most of the summer for me personally it's in a lot of cash and what I keep holding to remain defensive. 

 

Right onto some trades. I didn't quite finish last time with all the stuff I'd sold.

 

Anything that gets bought between now and September HAS to be right and very few are tempting me.

But I was tempted by Hayward Tyler (LON:HAYT) live at the Monday seminar I bought 5,000 at 67.9 and some later in the week at 73.

It's a very interesting one, an engineer with bright prospects. It's been named as one of the 50 recepients of the Government's £300m regional growth fund round so it says it doesn't need to raise any extra money. It's also winning contracts - one at a nuclear plant in Sweden.

It looks reasonably cheap and the recent trading statement was very strong - I wonder if results at the end of June will give it a re-rating up to 100p.

For now a lot of resistance for the price to go above 80 but in the 70s it looks a great tuckaway for an ISA.

I bought some more GVC group (LON:GVC) at 405. A lovely one this with a massive dividend, just got a huge dividend credit on it yesterday. It generates lots of cash, looks ever so cheap up to around 500.

I also topped up on OPG.(LON:OPG)  Already up more than £3,000 on the last buy it looked worth topping up on some more, and it seems like it wants to have a crack at the 100p level at some point soon.

Onto Saga (LON:SAGA), I'll probably put in for some but they don't look like the most exciting share on the planet.

I guess might be worth a go either as a long-term tuckaway or as  short-term quick profit.

I reckon fairer value is nearer the bottom of its suggested range - let's hope they are kind and the price isn't pushed right to the top at 2.5bln. That looks like all the value is squeezed from it, but at 2bln looks good. But we don't know till the day of issue.

I shorted Supergroup (LON:SGP) quite big on a spreadbet as those of you who came to the seminars saw...

It was quite an easy one and I got the bulk of the short on at 1255. Current profits sitting over £3,000. More to come?

Quite an easy idea, it put out a horrible statement then said profits were only going to be around 61m. When I shorted the market cap was nearly a billion which looks way to high, I reckon £700m looks fairer.

Another short made live at a seminar was Just Eat. (LON:JE.).A business that is easily copied it looks way too high at anything over 150 to me. It's already sunk a lot and some more to come I think.

I've been lobbing shorts on the FTSE in the high 6800s.

Let's clear up some more of the sells.

Car said their new tech thing had problems so the shares were marked lower losing me £1,134. Well I did make shedloads on it in the past so it owes me nothing.

Sold half Servelec (LON:SERV) for a  profit of £274 on the last buy. Holding the rest. Ptec  and Pets proved dire trades and went at a loss of £348 and   £120  respectively.

K3 went at   223.1 for a  profit of £702. Sold a touch more  kbc for a profit of £500 at 118. Also sold part Avation which went for a profit of £528.

Hangar 8 (LON:HGR8) got tipped in  a magazine which sent it zooming up enabling me to exit for  a way bigger profit than if it hadn't been tipped of £1,225. If you have a good profit in a share and you find it has soared on a mag or newspaper tip it's always worth banking some of the profits as the share price is up artificially. If it goes up nearly 20% on a tip you're crazy not to sell it!

Profits banked after all that mucking about are £1,452

HIGHLIGHTS 

Renew (LON:WIND)came out with a sparking statement today, they had a very good half year indeed, now have cash too and look to have a brilliant future, what is not to like? It has been a lovely trade and looks well worth holding for a long time to come.

Some of the more recent buys have done very nicely: Powerflute (LON:POWR) came out with a decent statement this week .Scisys is doing well and put out a very nice statement and appears to be buying back shares.

Gulf Marine (LON:GMS) looks firm. Accumuli (LON:ACM) has had a brilliant time, will soon be close to doubling - just a shame I sold half of them a while back but that's the way it goes. Boring Polypipe, well, has been a tad boring so far..

Kentz (LON:KENZ) won another nice order, back a bit on results but will probably power on over the summer. 

Long-termer Porvair (LON:PRV) has fired through the 300p now, what a great one. Another one that put out a very nice statement.

Nichols (LON:NICL) has started to fizz up and its statement too was bullish for this year and it has a new brand or two

Entertainment One (LON:ETO) came back a bit but is still a wonderful long-termer, more than four timed on it. I wonder whether it will get bid for for its amazing library at some point  

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP)has come back quite a lot, not that surprising.   It does tend to go skywards then come back to earth then start another charge and it did look pricey a lot higher. Starts to look cheap now unless there is anything lurking in the full-year out tomorrow,    Given I bought loads at 100 I'm not unhappy and I suspect my share certs will still be in the drawer in 3 years time.

Most of the remaining long-termers have been nicely quiet.

Seeing Machines (LON:SEE) is climbing a bit, it probably needs some news to lift it further.

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
 
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
 
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
 
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
 
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
 
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
 
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
 
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
 
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
 
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
 
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"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment
 
 
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