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Just tell me what is in your portfolio.....

Just tell me what is in your portfolio.....

Well it feels like ages, it has been ages thanks to the horrid aussie flu.

For many days I didn't even know what a share was anymore. Health is all. I think I would have handed over all the money I had just to feel better. I managed to answer a few emails but some I just didn't.

If you got a weird one from me during high fever I'm sorry.Something like "I'm dying so I don't care about your crap share that's going down..." But just a point (again!).

I can't discuss specfic shares with individuals. I'm really sorry. If you need to chat about shares with someone, try Twitter! I've said it loads of times now so if that's what you're after I've stopped replying.

Interesting new book out "Skin In The Game". Hidden Asymmetrics in Daily life by Massim Nicholas Taleb.

He's a trader who made millions.

His thesis is don't pay attention to what people say, only to what they do and how much of their own necks they are putting on the line.

On paying attention to "experts" and others offering advice on share dealing he says: "Don't tell me what you think. Just tell me what is in your portfolio". 

He says never listen to financial advisers, experts, journalists who are not exposed to the consequences of the advice.

I have to agree: I laugh a lot at "experts" on TV and in magazines and elsewhere telling others what to do or what will happen when they obviously have no exposure themselves.

For example, if you go to any kind of event where an expert is holding forth on shares, one thing and one thing only they need to show if you are to take any notice of what they say.

Which is.. let's see your accounts live. Let's see what you have and whether you follow your own advice. What have you got to be scared of? Go on, ask them, at the very least it would be fun...

If they can't or won't, ask for your money back. At my events my accounts are freely available and indeed we trade from them.

If I could not show I made a lot and practise my own preachings, I would be way too embarrassed to tell others what they should be doing. Anyway, lots of "dodgy geezers" out there! Beware.

Anyway if you want to see what's in my portfolio (Oooh matron) come along to the March 16th seminar! There is some small space left. See details elsewhere.

Now feeling better I am getting back into it. Luckily for me actually not a lot happened to my portfolio, a few rises here and there, no real dramatic falls so I feel relieved.

The new "flash crash" was interesting when the Dow smashed down for no real reason. Indeed I thought I was hallucinating during my fever. Was that 1,500 points down? Well, there was a reason. It's the machines. They have way too much power!

Sellers come in, algorithms go haywire and random computers start to sell everything. It really is totally bonkers. However perhaps there was a lesson in it to keep some cash aside.

It's a reminder that these days when markets crash they can do it really fast. Not months, not even days, sometimes hours! Maybe minutes!

If some major down event occurs it is just a lesson that we could see a lot wiped out real fast. And we should now all hold some cash ready to buy when and if it happens.

After all most of us have done pretty well recently. I got really lucky with it all anyhow. As I mentioned last time I had gone short of the indices and the flash crash filled the coffers nicely. I decided to take the money and run, quit the shorts and banked, gratefully. Well, except for some small shorts I got on in the 7700 area.

Sad to see so many retailers going bust but this is just the start. I would suggest don't get involved with buying any of them!

ToysRUs and Maplins went yesterday. I felt sorry for Maplins. The geeks in there really wanted to help and I only ever got good service. But, afraid Amazon took its toll.

What's next? Looks like Carpetshite.

I've been warning about that chain for years and indeed made more than £30k shorting them. (Should have stayed in!). But it's been a badly run chain and deserves to go.

Mothercare also looks ropey, I give it a year tops. A lot of the mid-range restaurant chains are next too I reckon. Overexpanded and relied too much on a "name" (Jamie Oliver).

I am short of Pets at Home (LON:PETS)  but I think that will survive because of its vet and grooming services rather than pet food which is very competitive. Estate agents are in trouble too, check out the dismal Foxtons (LON:FOXT)results yesterday.

The high streets are going to end up with just coffee shops (subsidised by pub chains), fast food junk, and charity shops. Everything else will go. Gradually a lot of high streets will give way to new residential housing and Amazon and the like will be taking everything else over. Happy days !

I am sure many of you have made some money recently.

Why give it back? I have a mountain of cash now and that happily waits for a smashdown. Ready for whenever it happens. So, lucky for me it's been pretty quiet recently.

But I have fiddled about. (Stop it.)

I really liked the results from Amino Technologies (LON:AMO) so I have bought some.

A great sign is always a rise in net cash and this more than doubled to over £13m. Profits are on the up too and another encouragement is the 10pc dividend hike.

On top of that a very clear three step to increasing profits laid out by the management.

One of my favourites, Next 15 (LON;NFC) which always seems under the radar ( not exciting or volatile enough for traders) made another decent report and I added some more.

There's increasing revenue coming in not just from existing companies like Samsung but also new ones like Slack and Nike.

Despite various acquisitions net debt is lower than expected leaving more headroom for further buys. A stronger dollar is not such a good thing but it doesn't hurt that much.

One of my favourite kind of buy it, forget it types (unless obviously the outlook changes)

I've bought some more of one of my favourites - LON:K3C.

A sensationally good statement today - there is nothing like a "substantially" above forecasts for shareholders!

And they even gave out some real figures which very few managements do.

It all looks extremely positive and this under the radar one should gradually rise higher and
would expect to hold it for at least another year.

Trouble I feel with investors is they can't bear to buy shares that have already gone up a lot.

They either "average down" (buy more of the same crap) or want to buy something that has been hit hard and gone down a lot. (See that's a bargain!).

I continue to advocate: Don't average down. Average up ! But it seems to me this is almost impossible psychologically for many. We want a bargain! But shares have often been falling for good reason...

I've taken a few profits. Two shorts worked out for me very nicely indeed. All hit their targets and I was happy with that. Hanging onto shorts for too long sometimes isn't the best of ideas!

Boo (LON:BOO) dropped nicely so I came out of the short on that one with a profit of £450. 

The short in Conviviality worked out very well indeed and I took profits on that short of £1,480.

Elsewhere some pretty decent risers. Sopheon has soared above 600p and continues to look strong. Abcam has gained nearly a quid and quiet for now there might be another lunge up coming.

Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) has risen to nearly 70p and what can I say about NMC which has fired on up! 500p to over 3000p.

The Devro short is paying off - there may be further falls after a lucklustre report. Safecharge holds nicely over 300p and remains a bigger holding.
It remains a tricky time with falls possible. Having cash on the side could pay dividends some point this year.

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
 
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
 
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
 
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
 
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
 
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
 
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
 
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
 
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
 
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
 
After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.
 
"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment
 
 
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