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I'm always a bit cautious going into May....

I'm always a bit cautious going into May....


I'm always a bit cautious going into May.

(That's whather husband Phillip tells me anyhow).

It never generally is a good month for shares, not surewhy, maybe there are too many bank holidays.

The first half is often flat with the second half a faller.

So anything bought in the near future has to have a verysound reason and either be really looking undervalued or defensive.

The markets also have had a decent run which makes meeven more cautious.

Of course who knows what the hell they will do. Befearful or greedy?

I've placed a FTSE short for the moment though if it headedback up towards 7500 I would exit for a loss. I would increase the short slowly should it go down.

I used as it only has a 0.8 spread which is the cheapest I can find.

The portfolio has had an incredible couple of weeks with some longer-termers flying up unexpectedly. More in a mo.

I made a decent amount shorting the AA recently. I came out way too early though!

I'm back in with a short after it rose very strongly. Someone attending the last seminar said

"I bought the AA near the top. Why? Well, it's the AA!"

While it's all very nice and lovely to be rescued and all, but the debt is simply enormous. It's billions ! And the debt is set to go higher.

The business model still doesn't look great either. So I think after its rise it is due to fall again and I'm after a fall back down to the quid area. As with all shorts if I get it wrong and it rises against me I just get out quickly and take the small loss.

I've been in Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) for some time. It's one of thoseshares no-one notices, it just very gradually rise a half pee there a penny here.

All the little rises gives me profits for the website now of nearly £20,000 and a lot more personally.

The big money I've made has been mostly patience to hold on to good ones, sometimes for years and keep adding as they go up.

Anyhow I bought another lot! Recent results looked good. Its net debt, though high is within my perameters and is coming down despite £16m spent on acquisitions. Profit is up 28pc and dividend 10pc.

Good performances from its brands and the Sinclair products have integrated well.

It expects to keep growing organically and with more acquisitions. Looks well-run. Downside?

Well it is a drugs company which always adds risk. I would like the end of the story to be a continued slow rise to a quid then someone to take it out at 150p. That's my plan!

I've also added some more NWF Group. (LON:NWF)

It delivers feed fuel and food. This cold winter should really help the next results.

It continues to look cheap which is why I have added.

It has promised double digit gains and if the cold weather really helps as it has said, I would hope for a decent rise well over the 200p mark. It has debt but within my margins and it is being reduced.

I bought some more K3C on weakness.

It succumbed not surprisingly to some profit taking from 4 quid to the late 200s with probably stops being hit making it tumble too much.

It doesn't take much selling pressure to push down a small one but equally the other way round. On its promised ebita of £7m still looks like lots of upside.

So I took advantage and picked up a few more. Already in a decent profit from ones picked up in the 100s. I now hope to hold for a good while, maybe a year or two and ignore any further volatility.

I've been out and then re-bought Vectura. (LON:VEC)

It leapt higher far quicker and faster than I could have imagined and it flew past target. I waited greedily thinking there was even more to come but then it started to sink so I banked profits.

If I'd sold nearer the highs it would have been a lot more. But I was happy with part of the ride.

But it did then come down a lot more after a Japanese co said it wouldn't bid. However, there are lots of companies that could so I am back in for a potential repeat trade. Just because one company isn't bidding doesn't mean another won't. So back in Vec, looks like the 70s shows major support too.

I bought some Science Group (LON:SAG) after its statement a few days ago. This international consultancy produced profits ahead of market expectations and net cash of nearly £8m. Valuation of its property assets sit at over £30m.

There is little short-term downside as the company says it is going to buy back shares because it is disappointed with the share price performance.

Shares have topped out at the 230p area previously, I think they are worth nearer 300p so happy to hold. Probably a push over230p would look bullish. For now though this one looks undervalued.
I sold a few (about a quarter) of long time hold ETO. I don't think there is anything wrong with it but the sector is out of favour. But over time I have doubled and trebled on it so I have banked a bit of that profit, £7,656. It has been falling so it seemed reasonable to bank a bit.

Elsewhere great news from AB Dynamics! (LON:ABDP).

Been holding for a while and topped up. Half year results were excellent, with profits and dividends well higher.

Testing of driverless cars should really be the next big thing. I think with patience, this one could be an awful lot higher as time goes on.

A share price that could definitely accelerate. Again bar a market crash expect to be a patient holder for some time.

Some longer-term holds have really rocketed up.

GB group has stormed higher on great statement. Over all accounts this one has made me well over £150,000. Website holds show profits of nearly £70,000.

Iomart is trying to get over 400p. Another lovely long-termer with massive profits. Avon Rubber has been bouncing up, if it can clear 1350, that would be bullish. NMC came down after a fund raise but looks like it is about to head higher.

Redde reported today that things look good. Price gradually is rising.

Sopheon! Goodness me, this one has just been climbing and climbing and I've now well over doubled in some of the earlier trades. I have been tempted once or twice to profit take. But I am grimly holding and indeed even thinking of buying more, a super share.

My biggest holding Safecharge continues a slow march up and looks like soon to break all time highs. Just a matter of patience here and hoping for a 400-450 takeout.

Overall very pleased with progress but again I remain cautious after recent rises and won't hesitate to short the indices again should a meltdown look likely.

The price of aluminium has dived this week.

Aluminium traders say they have been foiled again.

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.
"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment
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