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Bitcoin and Ethereum: Are crypto markets bracing for volatility spike?

Published: 03:39 06 Apr 2023 EDT

Crypto report

Bitcoin (BTC) managed to scrape in a win yesterday by hitting the midnight bell a fraction higher at US$28,170.

Today the BTC/USDT pair has slid back around 0.4%, dipping just below the hard-fought 28k barrier.

This has been one of the longest sideways trades we’ve seen for the benchmark cryptocurrency in a long time.

Is bitcoin volatility here to stay? – Source: currency.com

Is bitcoin volatility here to stay? – Source: currency.com

Despite the muted price action – at least compared to the wild swings higher we saw in mid-March – the Bitcoin Volatility Index remains elevated i.e. the risk factor is still strong with bitcoin.

Volatility is likely high due to the reduced liquidity in the market, unsurprising given the multitude of headwinds in the cryptocurrency sector, from regulatory disputes levelled against the major fiat-to-crypto on-ramps, to macro factors such as economic uncertainty and interest rate hikes.

Bitcoin volatility over 12 months – Source coinglass.com

Bitcoin volatility over 12 months – Source coinglass.com

There’s a sense that bitcoin’s short-lived safe-haven status revival during the recent bout of traditional finance turmoil l is being flipped back to a speculative play for investors. If so, larger price fluctuations could be on the horizon.

Ethereum (ETH), meanwhile, hit a six-month high of US$1,940 yesterday, closing over 2% higher.

The ETH/USDT pair has since scaled back to US$1,880 but it remains significantly stronger than bitcoin in the short term, with the ETH/BTC pair adding 5.5% in the past seven days.

As pointed out in yesterday’s market report, there is hype around the pending Shanghai upgrade which will see up to 16 million staked ether coins unlocked from hibernation.

ETH bulls should be cautious of large-scale selling pressure on release of these tokens if holders decide to take profits.

On the bright side, staked ETH coins are not expected to be released in one fell swoop, easing fears somewhat.

Mixed bag of altcoins

Ripple (XRP)’s recent rally appears to have fizzled out, with the payment token slipping into 7% week-on-week losses.

The Ripple Army was hyped up over a pending ruling in the long-running SEC vs. Ripple Labs securities litigation, but as yet, nothing has emerged.

The other altcoin leader du jour, Dogecoin (DOGE) remains 21% higher week on week, though the meme coin did rack up around 5% in losses overnight.

DOGE was on fire after Mr. DOGE himself Elon Musk changed Twitter’s blue bird logo to the Shiba Inu synonymous with Dogecoin, though bulls have come to the conclusion that this does not alter the underlying fundamentals or utility of the crypto asset.

Top overnight risers included blockchain network Klaytn, Trust Wallet’s TWT token and decentralised finance (DeFi) token Maker (MKR).

Global cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.3% to US$1.19tn overnight, while total value locked in the DeFi space dipped 0.6% to US$50.8bn.

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