Thursday is set to be the busiest day of this shortened week, with BT Group PLC (LON:BT.A) a likely highlight as it reported its full year numbers. There is a lot of investor expectation already resting on the shoulders of BT’s new chief executive Philip Jansen as he makes his public debut alongside the results.
Brought in to turn things around with the shares having halved over the past three years, the ex Worldpay boss got his feet under the desk in February and one big decision he and the board have to make is over the dividend. Some analysts are adamant that a cut is crucial while others see it as unnecessary.
The average analyst forecast currently points to a total dividend of 15.4p for the 2018/19 financial year, for which management said in January will see EBITDA “around the top” of its prior £7.3bn-£7.4bn range.
However, the City is expecting the fourth quarter to see EBITDA tumble 9% to £1.86bn as underlying revenues decline 2.8% to £5.78bn, giving an estimated full-year top line of £23.38bn, with £7.41bn of EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share of 26.6p.
UBS analysts said the results will potentially be significant as Jansen “will give a strategy update that could results in more upfront investment for the group/higher capex at Openreach in return for higher longer-term profits”, including potential further cost savings above the £1.5bn annual gross savings already announced. The Swiss bank also said current market estimates “are too conservative” as BT has beaten expectations for both the second and third quarters.
“However, any additional investment by the new CEO could put pressure on the dividend.”
Broker Numis believes Jansen “will likely be meaningfully positive” for a stock it sees as undervalued, though it believes he will not change BT’s strategy “because there is probably nothing radically different anyone can do with a business” that generates more than 90% of free cash from retail and wholesale connectivity in the UK.
Over at Berenberg analysts said a dividend cut was needed as Jansen should favour investment over shareholder returns to return the fallen beast to growth, seeing this as probably “right for the long-term” but aware that investors “will not like it”.
Superdry Plc (LON:SDRY) investors await new strategy under Dunkerton
Superdry investors are waiting to hear what co-founder Julian Dunkerton has planned for the retailer now that he is back in the driving seat. A year following his departure, Dunkerton returned as chief executive of Superdry last month after convincing shareholders that he should be brought back to help turn around the coats and hoodies maker.
The shares have plunged to 506p from 1,500p in the past year after two profit warnings and a weak set of third-quarter results in early February. This decline spurred Dunkerton to push for re-election, saying “urgent action” was required to address the underperformance.
Dunkerton may update investors on his strategy for the business when Superdry reports a full-year trading update on Thursday. UBS forecasts 4.6% group sales growth for the fourth quarter, including a 4% rise in retail sales and a 5% gain in wholesale sales.
“Given the recent change in management (2-Apr-19) we believe expectations for current trading a generally low and note the relatively small weighting of 4Q sales (4Q is 40% of 2H sales).
“The key focus for us will be commentary from the new management team on 1) the magnitude of possible near term investments; 2) the medium term outlook for a brand turnaround; and 3) any initiatives already underway (news articles suggest childrenswear and footwear licensing deals have been cancelled).”
Wholesale outperformance to drive guidance lift at WM Morrison Supermarkets Plc (LON:MRW)
WM Morrison Supermarkets bosses will no doubt have breathed a sigh of relief at the end of last month when regulators blocked Sainsbury’s and Asda’s merger. But the supermarket group can’t stand still as pressure from Aldi and Lidl remains intense, while Tesco – the UK’s largest grocer – looks to have got itself firmly back on track.
Like-for-like sales will be closely watched when Morrisons updates on its first-quarter performance on Thursday following a decent showing over Christmas.
Morrisons did warn back then that shoppers were seeking out value more than ever before, so it will be interesting to see if bosses have seen any further “changes in customer behaviour”
As for the wholesale business, which is expected to generate annual revenues of £1bn+ in the not-too-distant future, investors will want to see that its strong start has continued. If it has, analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown think there’s a chance guidance could be upgraded.
Cost rises eyed at Barratt Developments PLC (LON:BDEV)
The housebuilder is expected to report “robust trading and positive market conditions” when it updates the market on Thursday. That’s according to analysts at Numis, who expect the FTSE 100 housebuilder to report stable sales rates, alongside a 3-4% rise in price and cost inflation.
Demand for new homes has been propped up in recent years by the Help to Buy scheme – or Help to Profit as some detractors call it – as well as cheap mortgages.
That helped Barratt to report a pre-tax profit of £408mln in the first-half of its financial year – a £60mln year-on-year increase. With Brexit having been pushed back, there are also signs that the UK housing market is starting to find its feet again, which would only be good news for Barratt and its peer group.
Robust RSA Insurance Group PLC (LON:RSA) results expected
RSA updates on its first quarter on Thursday, with the statement expected to focus on profitability and or capital as well as growth in net written premiums. For the full year UBS forecasts premium growth of 1% and expect management commentary around profitability to be “robust and in-line with management expectations”.
Regarding the loss environment, we understand UK and Scandi have been relatively benign, with Canada slightly above average. Solvency ratio at Dec 2018 was 170%; we forecast ~173% at 1Q19. There is a conference call at 8:30am UKT: Dial-in +44 33 3300 0804, pin code 31259867
Numis said: "We expect premium income to be broadly flat with modest growth in Scandinavia and Canada likely to be offset by reduced UK income. Given the unexciting top line story the market is likely to focus on any comments relating to underwriting performance in Q1.
"In particular the market will be looking for signs of improvement in the UK division following poor results in 2018."
Following above-average weather and large loss activity in 2018, Numis thinks there is scope for a modest relief rally given that loss experience in the first quarter of this year is unlikely to have been worse than last year.
Significant announcements on Thursday May 9
Trading updates: Wm. Morrison Supermarkets PLC (Q1) (LON:MRW), Barratt Developments PLC (LON:BDEV), RSA Insurance Group PLC (LON:RSA), Superdry PLC (LON:SDRY), BAE Systems PLC (LON:BA.), IMI PLC (LON:IMI), Mondi Plc (LON:MNDI), Beazley PLC (LON:BEZ), Derwent London PLC (LON:DLN), National Express PLC (LON:NEX)
Economic data: RICS UK house price index; UK industrial, manufacturing production; US weekly jobless claims; US PPI