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Naked Trader - About to go away in May

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MARKETS

Well we are into the summer period which is notoriously tricky, as they say, go away in May (which I am about to do!) 

Pretty glad I sold part of everything recently as I mentioned last time.

As you know winding down for a summer away in California. 

While the FTSE's been doing okay the mid and small caps haven't and I am sure many of you have seen the value of your portfolios fall.

Some of it appears to be due to a mass broker sell with the good sold along with the bad. Usually when this happens the good ones eventually bounce back.

It's always hard seeing some profits eaten away. Even harder to know whether to stick or twist.

I think there is always a sensible half way house which is what I've done which is topslice/sell stuff, go into reasonable cash but keep some of the longer-term good ones.

And maybe try and follow markets down with some shorts keeping tightish stops on them.

Of course there is no right or wrong answers. Dealing with the market is like trying to reason with a pissed alcoholic.

And there is no way anyone can get in at the top and out at the bottom.

I've found over the years while I make good money over time, at some points total values can sink but usually they rise again. It actually often works out holding onto the good one as their values eventually come out.

Anyway I can't advise you but seems reasonable to have at least some cash over the summer and take it easy.

It's not a given the market will fall - who knows? It could equally push on up. So I'll continue to try and gently follow it.

But given I'm away for most of the summer for me personally it's in a lot of cash and what I keep holding to remain defensive. 

 

Right onto some trades. I didn't quite finish last time with all the stuff I'd sold.

 

Anything that gets bought between now and September HAS to be right and very few are tempting me.

But I was tempted by Hayward Tyler (LON:HAYT) live at the Monday seminar I bought 5,000 at 67.9 and some later in the week at 73.

It's a very interesting one, an engineer with bright prospects. It's been named as one of the 50 recepients of the Government's £300m regional growth fund round so it says it doesn't need to raise any extra money. It's also winning contracts - one at a nuclear plant in Sweden.

It looks reasonably cheap and the recent trading statement was very strong - I wonder if results at the end of June will give it a re-rating up to 100p.

For now a lot of resistance for the price to go above 80 but in the 70s it looks a great tuckaway for an ISA.

I bought some more GVC group (LON:GVC) at 405. A lovely one this with a massive dividend, just got a huge dividend credit on it yesterday. It generates lots of cash, looks ever so cheap up to around 500.

I also topped up on OPG.(LON:OPG)  Already up more than £3,000 on the last buy it looked worth topping up on some more, and it seems like it wants to have a crack at the 100p level at some point soon.

Onto Saga (LON:SAGA), I'll probably put in for some but they don't look like the most exciting share on the planet.

I guess might be worth a go either as a long-term tuckaway or as  short-term quick profit.

I reckon fairer value is nearer the bottom of its suggested range - let's hope they are kind and the price isn't pushed right to the top at 2.5bln. That looks like all the value is squeezed from it, but at 2bln looks good. But we don't know till the day of issue.

I shorted Supergroup (LON:SGP) quite big on a spreadbet as those of you who came to the seminars saw...

It was quite an easy one and I got the bulk of the short on at 1255. Current profits sitting over £3,000. More to come?

Quite an easy idea, it put out a horrible statement then said profits were only going to be around 61m. When I shorted the market cap was nearly a billion which looks way to high, I reckon £700m looks fairer.

Another short made live at a seminar was Just Eat. (LON:JE.).A business that is easily copied it looks way too high at anything over 150 to me. It's already sunk a lot and some more to come I think.

I've been lobbing shorts on the FTSE in the high 6800s.

Let's clear up some more of the sells.

Car said their new tech thing had problems so the shares were marked lower losing me £1,134. Well I did make shedloads on it in the past so it owes me nothing.

Sold half Servelec (LON:SERV) for a  profit of £274 on the last buy. Holding the rest. Ptec  and Pets proved dire trades and went at a loss of £348 and   £120  respectively.

K3 went at   223.1 for a  profit of £702. Sold a touch more  kbc for a profit of £500 at 118. Also sold part Avation which went for a profit of £528.

Hangar 8 (LON:HGR8) got tipped in  a magazine which sent it zooming up enabling me to exit for  a way bigger profit than if it hadn't been tipped of £1,225. If you have a good profit in a share and you find it has soared on a mag or newspaper tip it's always worth banking some of the profits as the share price is up artificially. If it goes up nearly 20% on a tip you're crazy not to sell it!

Profits banked after all that mucking about are £1,452

HIGHLIGHTS 

Renew (LON:WIND)came out with a sparking statement today, they had a very good half year indeed, now have cash too and look to have a brilliant future, what is not to like? It has been a lovely trade and looks well worth holding for a long time to come.

Some of the more recent buys have done very nicely: Powerflute (LON:POWR) came out with a decent statement this week .Scisys is doing well and put out a very nice statement and appears to be buying back shares.

Gulf Marine (LON:GMS) looks firm. Accumuli (LON:ACM) has had a brilliant time, will soon be close to doubling - just a shame I sold half of them a while back but that's the way it goes. Boring Polypipe, well, has been a tad boring so far..

Kentz (LON:KENZ) won another nice order, back a bit on results but will probably power on over the summer. 

Long-termer Porvair (LON:PRV) has fired through the 300p now, what a great one. Another one that put out a very nice statement.

Nichols (LON:NICL) has started to fizz up and its statement too was bullish for this year and it has a new brand or two

Entertainment One (LON:ETO) came back a bit but is still a wonderful long-termer, more than four timed on it. I wonder whether it will get bid for for its amazing library at some point  

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP)has come back quite a lot, not that surprising.   It does tend to go skywards then come back to earth then start another charge and it did look pricey a lot higher. Starts to look cheap now unless there is anything lurking in the full-year out tomorrow,    Given I bought loads at 100 I'm not unhappy and I suspect my share certs will still be in the drawer in 3 years time.

Most of the remaining long-termers have been nicely quiet.

Seeing Machines (LON:SEE) is climbing a bit, it probably needs some news to lift it further.

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