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Don’t bet on Brent rising

Last updated: 05:00 13 Sep 2014 EDT, First published: 04:00 13 Sep 2014 EDT

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Alistair Strang, www.trendsandtargets.com

Brent oil is currently falling in price and I’m now viewing it as heading to an initial US$96 a barrel with secondary, if broken, down at US $92.22. 

The crude price is most emphatically not in a happy place and it needs exceed US$103.35 to escape its current drop path.

Commonsense – as well as the political difficulties in Ukraine and the Middle East - suggest the price should be actually be going up. 

However my software says otherwise. 

 

 

can’t see it hitting a reliable upward trajectory going unless the price somehow manages to exceed US $115, which is represented by the light blue on the chart.

The longer term outlook isn’t particularly clever either. 

In the event of the price getting to US$96 a barrel, as seems likely, this triggers a long term drip down to US$80. And when I view the five-year chart this prospect doesn’t look stupid.

As usual, get in touch with any nominations for this column.

Alistair 

www.trendsandtargets.com

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