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Johnston Press staring into the abyss

Last updated: 13:00 17 Jul 2015 EDT, First published: 04:00 18 Jul 2015 EDT

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Last time I looked at Johnston Press (LON:JPR), I’d given a bottom target of 122p, along with a dire warning if the price closed below such a level. Essentially I was unable to calculate a bottom without using a minus sign.

Now there is a little good news, which is slightly confusing.

Because Johnston Press actually managed to break my 122p target once it had moved through the ruling blue downtrend, I’m now able to re-calculate an ultimate bottom at 16p for this share.

Slightly better news is possible due to movements since it crashed on July 14 as it looks like a fairly near-term target is 105p – and this should provide the platform for some sort of bounce.

Unfortunately, the share price needs get above 140p to stop me talking about the risk the share price hitting 16p longer term.

 

That’s about the only good news and it would be an error to view JPR as ‘cheap’. When I adjust for the 50:1 price split enacted last November, JPR is now trading lower that at any time previously. So, unless it somehow prints a reason to better 140p, there’s a dreadful danger involved when catching this falling knife.

On the basis of expecting a bounce from a near term 105p to better 140p, a reasonable initial recovery target calculates at 209p.

But let’s just say optimism on that score is lacking.

Alistair Strang is founder of www.trendsandtargets.com

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