I'm always a bit cautious going into May....



I'm always a bit cautious going into May.

(That's whather husband Phillip tells me anyhow).

It never generally is a good month for shares, not surewhy, maybe there are too many bank holidays.

The first half is often flat with the second half a faller.

So anything bought in the near future has to have a verysound reason and either be really looking undervalued or defensive.

The markets also have had a decent run which makes meeven more cautious.

Of course who knows what the hell they will do. Befearful or greedy?

I've placed a FTSE short for the moment though if it headedback up towards 7500 I would exit for a loss. I would increase the short slowly should it go down.

I used  http://www.spreadco.com/nakedtrader as it only has a 0.8 spread which is the cheapest I can find.

The portfolio has had an incredible couple of weeks with some longer-termers flying up unexpectedly. More in a mo.

I made a decent amount shorting the AA recently. I came out way too early though!

I'm back in with a short after it rose very strongly. Someone attending the last seminar said

"I bought the AA near the top. Why? Well, it's the AA!"

While it's all very nice and lovely to be rescued and all, but the debt is simply enormous. It's billions ! And the debt is set to go higher.

The business model still doesn't look great either. So I think after its rise it is due to fall again and I'm after a fall back down to the quid area. As with all shorts if I get it wrong and it rises against me I just get out quickly and take the small loss.

I've been in Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) for some time. It's one of thoseshares no-one notices, it just very gradually rise a half pee there a penny here.

All the little rises gives me profits for the website now of nearly £20,000 and a lot more personally.

The big money I've made has been mostly patience to hold on to good ones, sometimes for years and keep adding as they go up.

Anyhow I bought another lot! Recent results looked good. Its net debt, though high is within my perameters and is coming down despite £16m spent on acquisitions. Profit is up 28pc and dividend 10pc.

Good performances from its brands and the Sinclair products have integrated well.

It expects to keep growing organically and with more acquisitions. Looks well-run. Downside?

Well it is a drugs company which always adds risk. I would like the end of the story to be a continued slow rise to a quid then someone to take it out at 150p. That's my plan!

I've also added some more NWF Group. (LON:NWF)

It delivers feed fuel and food. This cold winter should really help the next results.

It continues to look cheap which is why I have added.

It has promised double digit gains and if the cold weather really helps as it has said, I would hope for a decent rise well over the 200p mark. It has debt but within my margins and it is being reduced.

I bought some more K3C on weakness.

It succumbed not surprisingly to some profit taking from 4 quid to the late 200s with probably stops being hit making it tumble too much.

It doesn't take much selling pressure to push down a small one but equally the other way round. On its promised ebita of £7m still looks like lots of upside.

So I took advantage and picked up a few more. Already in a decent profit from ones picked up in the 100s. I now hope to hold for a good while, maybe a year or two and ignore any further volatility.

I've been out and then re-bought Vectura. (LON:VEC)

It leapt higher far quicker and faster than I could have imagined and it flew past target. I waited greedily thinking there was even more to come but then it started to sink so I banked profits.

If I'd sold nearer the highs it would have been a lot more. But I was happy with part of the ride.

But it did then come down a lot more after a Japanese co said it wouldn't bid. However, there are lots of companies that could so I am back in for a potential repeat trade. Just because one company isn't bidding doesn't mean another won't. So back in Vec, looks like the 70s shows major support too.

I bought some Science Group (LON:SAG) after its statement a few days ago. This international consultancy produced profits ahead of market expectations and net cash of nearly £8m. Valuation of its property assets sit at over £30m.

There is little short-term downside as the company says it is going to buy back shares because it is disappointed with the share price performance.

Shares have topped out at the 230p area previously, I think they are worth nearer 300p so happy to hold. Probably a push over230p would look bullish. For now though this one looks undervalued.
I sold a few (about a quarter) of long time hold ETO. I don't think there is anything wrong with it but the sector is out of favour. But over time I have doubled and trebled on it so I have banked a bit of that profit, £7,656. It has been falling so it seemed reasonable to bank a bit.

Elsewhere great news from AB Dynamics! (LON:ABDP).

Been holding for a while and topped up. Half year results were excellent, with profits and dividends well higher.

Testing of driverless cars should really be the next big thing. I think with patience, this one could be an awful lot higher as time goes on.

A share price that could definitely accelerate. Again bar a market crash expect to be a patient holder for some time.

Some longer-term holds have really rocketed up.

GB group has stormed higher on great statement. Over all accounts this one has made me well over £150,000. Website holds show profits of nearly £70,000.

Iomart is trying to get over 400p. Another lovely long-termer with massive profits. Avon Rubber has been bouncing up, if it can clear 1350, that would be bullish. NMC came down after a fund raise but looks like it is about to head higher.

Redde reported today that things look good. Price gradually is rising.

Sopheon! Goodness me, this one has just been climbing and climbing and I've now well over doubled in some of the earlier trades. I have been tempted once or twice to profit take. But I am grimly holding and indeed even thinking of buying more, a super share.

My biggest holding Safecharge continues a slow march up and looks like soon to break all time highs. Just a matter of patience here and hoping for a 400-450 takeout.

Overall very pleased with progress but again I remain cautious after recent rises and won't hesitate to short the indices again should a meltdown look likely.

The price of aluminium has dived this week.

Aluminium traders say they have been foiled again.

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