Anyone know where David Cameron is?? This is all his bloody fault.
It feels the markets are as bored of the Brexit bollocks as I am sure you and definitely I am.
I don't think any of us care anymore. In - out - shake it all about can we just make a decision, get it done and move on?
It is driving all us traders/investors barmy. Can someone make a firm decision - all we want to know is what's happening and stop the limbo. Businesses are fuming and rightly so.
All these mad ego driven politicians are causing us so many problems. There is little doubt even a piss up in a brewery could not be arranged. (Unless it took five years and 200 votes to get the event underday).
Markets are in the dumps right now. It isn't just Brexit.. it's trouble in the US, China.. maybe Germany and Italy and possible recession on the cards.
So it's tricky times. And some fear coming in.
Though I have seen a number of times buying on fear can work.
If in the next couple of weeks a no deal can be avoided we could see a market relief rally. And anyone buying this week could be rewarded!
My strategy has continued to be to stay in a pile of cash and keep that on the sidelines and I have added to it. But also to keep an open mind and if there is a decent bargain, maybe pick it up.
Two seminars threw up a number of trade ideas. Lots actually of which I can only cover some here.
I'm afraid this is due to "how much time do I want to give this website when I love doing other things". Because if I put a trade up here I have to remember I did, try and follow it through and make comments. All of which takes time. Then the emails to answer et all.
A lot of the ideas are "future" trades, waiting on prices to come down for the perfect buy.
One thing kept coming up at the first seminar when we were searching for new trades. Shares with net cash are going well and are being marked up.
Shares with big net debt are being marked down.
My suggestion in an uncertain market is - go through your portfolio and axe anything with big debt that isn't backed by assets. (An example Cineworld and ETO have big debt but are backed with assets).
It is definitely worth having some cash sitting there too. Then if the worst happens you've got buying power to try and pick the worst fear point to buy.
I have added more to the cash pile with some topslicing (selling some rather than all of something). I was targetting things that have done well and just banking some of the profits for the time being.
Onto some trades then.
I picked up some OMG. At the very least, if it falls, you can cry: "OMG, OMG".
A very high quality company in a decent area of the market - it develops and markets analytics software for motion measurement in over 70 countries.
Profits are booming here and taking Brexit aside, looks a great longer-term investment and has held steady against recent falls. It also has a net cash pile.
You have to pay for the quality but I was fine stumping up at a pe of over 20. If it carries on performing the shares could head over 100 and higher.
Obviously it won't be immune from a no deal so stop in place.
SimplyBiz (LON:SBIZ) kept coming up on my radar and indeed I put a few orders on it live at Monday's seminar. I was pretty close to getting the "sell" price on DMA but not quite and ended up paying the buy price, drat.
New seminar: May 20th, come and spend a day with me and live markets for beginners and improvers. Massive first ten to book discount - mail me at [email protected] with "May discount seminar" in the subject line.
Worth it though in the future perhaps. It provides business support and financial market services to IFAs and the like.
This one looks quite exciting now. First off was a licence agreement with Aviva after some good results.
Then came an acquisition of Fintech platform owner Dafaqto for £74m - after completion Defaqto (a massive tech business) will still have £3.4m cash.
Sbiz raised a lot of money easily for the buy but will have debt afterwards.
It just looks a like a superb buy for Sbiz which will enhance earnings quickly and grow the business emormously.
At this price it looks like a great Isa tuckaway for a couple of years.
I picked up some more Hollywood Bowl (LON:BOWL) live at a seminar getting the sell price on DMA.(Come to a seminar and I will teach you how to do it!)
Buying at the sell price is always great as you start a trade at breakeven by paying no spread. Also makes it easier to get out fast at a small loss if it starts to tank.
Also picked up some more in rival Ten Entertainment (LON:TEG). Bowling alleys are hot! On two visits my local was jammed packed with people bowling, buying crap food at high prices and playing the arcades. My son's school took them bowling last week!
As mentioned above I've added some more cash and done quite a few topslices and the odd total sale.
A market observation in current conditions is even if a company reports great results expect it to fall (sometimes heavily) on results day, and probably in the days after. Then it picks up and heads back up.
So if you made a few quid on something a strategy could be to sell some the day before results, then buy them back a few days later!
A recent example is Sopheon - (SPE) I sold about half the day before results (banks a profit of £4,340 for the website) but bought some back a couple of days later.
We watched supply and demand at the follow up seminar on this one as it turned back up. Nice results but it doesn't matter as people profit take, and as a share price marches down, stops get hit - market makers get hit by a wave of computerised selling.
This is happening across the board. Once a share starts falling in the current climate the selling (fear?) creates an eventual buying opportunity in the oversold weakness. But Sopheon now looks in super value territory again at under a tenner. The spread always looks wide but you can usually buy well inside it no problem.
XP Power (LON:XPP) came up with a very nice statement and looks a great turnaround story and I bought some more after the initial buys I reported last time.
A quite bullish statement and it looks on the turn after its previous falls. Could easily turn a lot higher if Brexit sorts itself out.
I shorted Britvic (LON:BVIC) - this one's had a very good run but I think the fizz could easily come out of these shares.
It has a lot of rivals these days including fevertree and it doesn't seem to be making much headway in the premium market.
However to be on the safe side a guaranteed stop looks to be worth it here just in case someone like coke makes a bid.
It became pretty obvious to quit IG (LON:IG) as close to results, guess what? The shares started to tumble. I made a mistake here, I was on my Spanish travels when share hit my target around 600 and I never took the profits! I got a profit of £280 but only at 575. Probably the shares are priced about right after the statement. Kape shares have been a bit disappointing. The statement was ok but I sold for a small profit of £150. I might get back in but it needs to work out what to do with the cash.
NMC (LON:NMC) went way over target and I sold the recent trade for a profit of £358. It has slipped since then and might be looking value. K3 had a topslice - It has been hit on Brexit worries (less activity) but priced already as if there has been a profit warning it looks value now and time to eye up buying again. It looks like brilliant value now. Profit £1,055. Also topsliced is Future (half sold) for a profit of £3,655. Very nice double so worthy of a slice. I top sliced some AB after some great rises to bank a profit of £3,916. CC yielded £350.
Sync went for profit of £402 and a small topslice of Cine for a profit of £570.. Two old trades in GVC (LON:GVC) went after a big director sell off for a loss of £690 and profit £1,870. Tried a small bounceback spreadbet on it
but that failed so waiting for the turnround which could come soon. And a topslice for some old APH trades for a profit of £2,250. The boredom overwhelmed.
All of which raises my cash balance again and profit banked for the site are £18,506.
I wish you all the best of luck with your trading at the mo. If it makes you feel tired and irritable, perhaps you find yourself being horrible to people you don't know on bulletin boards, or you are blaming everyone else for losses or Brexit, Neil Woodford, insider traders, Trump, May, the weather, the bloke in the pub, or it affects you or you don't feel good about yourself, stop for a bit!
It's only money. As long as you can afford to lose a bit it won't matter to your life longer-term. If you are worried it could be you have too much in, or you gambling too heavily or not using stops or hiding behind the sofa which reminds me behind there needs a good hoovering. Dysoning now?
Chill out, enjoy the spring - be nice to people, be positive, try and love everyone (even grumpy old gits). The more I live the more I try and love people. Even the really shitty ones. Though it is a stretch sometimes. Love you lots!