The broker said progress has been largely as expected in Egypt, Oman and Tunisia, but the delay in the Moroccan drilling campaign, now underway, and lower prospectivity have prompted it to reduce its target by 5p to 45p.
Even so, the key Egyptian project continues to progress in line with expectations, which should lead to increased free cash flow in the second half of 2014.
There are also potential catalysts within the 12 well Moroccan drilling campaign and other potential wells in Tunisia and Oman.
Liberum is forecasting Circle will generate US$300mlm in operating cash flow during the period 2014-18, which added to its current debt facilities should give it plenty of firepower for other ventures,
“The share price is well below our little changed 30p NAV and appears to give no value to the drilling programme (15p). Our TP is 45p.”
'Buy' remains its stance. Shares today were 22p.