Will the Fed's Pivot Save the Day?

The U.S. economy is slowing as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade The labor market is tight but is beginning to lose momentum, a clear late-cycle signal

Macro Outlook.

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Comments of the Day

15 August 2019



Video commentary for August 14th 2019


Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber;s Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: US and UK yield curves invert. Wall Street pulls back sharply, gold steady, oil weak, Europe at greatest risk of a recession, corporate profits static, Pound weak





Eoin Treacy's view

I will be travelling to Guangzhou and Taiwan between August 5th and 19th. I don't anticipate any issues with posting a limited Comment of the Day and Subscriber's video but I may be posting at odd times because of the timezone. If subscriber's would like to submit copy of general interest to the Collective we will be happy to publish it over the coming couple of weeks. 



Macro Outlook: Will the Fed's Pivot Save the Day? Guggenheim Partners

Thanks to a subscriber for this report by Brian Smedley for Guggenheim may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The U.S. economy is slowing as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade

The labor market is tight but is beginning to lose momentum, a clear late-cycle signal

Our research continues to point to a recession beginning in H1 2020

The next recession could be prolonged due to limited policy space at home and overseas

A looming recession means reducing risk, upgrading credit quality and extending duration


Eoin Treacy's view

A link to the fullr report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

For a recession to begin at the beginning of 2020 growth would have to be negative in this quarter. That’s a big ask in my opinion. The one thing we know about the inversion of the yield curve spread is it has a long lead time. On the last two occasions it offered an 18-month lead indicator of trouble in the economy. That suggests we should probably be looking at after the US Presidential Election rather than before it for a source of strife. However, we will need to be guided by the price action.  



Eoin's personal portfolio: crypto long increased July 15th 2019


Eoin Treacy's view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided. 



2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar


Eoin Treacy's view

The London Philharmonic Orchestra is holding a concert in David’s memory on October 5th October at the Royal Festival Hall. There is a reception between 5.30 and 6.45 in the Foyle Pavilion, Level 3, Green Side and subscribers are well to join David’s family there for light refreshments. Following the reception, we will move to the Beecham Bar, Blue Side, Level 5 for a short talk by Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO. 

If you wish to attend the concert as well, which includes a performance of Elgar’s Cello Concerto by the Young Musician of the Year, it begins at 7.30 and you may book tickets (£67) by telephone on 020 7840 4242 quoting the code Fuller Concert.

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected]  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

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