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World's First 30-Year Bond With Zero Coupon Flops in Germany

“This shows that there is less demand for 30-year bonds at negative yields,” said Marco Meijer, a senior fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas SA.

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Comments of the Day

22 August 2019

 

 

Video commentary for August 21st 2019

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Discussion of the difference between medium-term corrections and tops, Europe steadies, gold pauses, oil remains weak.

 

 

World's First 30-Year Bond With Zero Coupon Flops in Germany

This article by John Ainger for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“This shows that there is less demand for 30-year bonds at negative yields,” said Marco Meijer, a senior fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas SA. Still, Meijer doesn’t “see yields rising a lot in Europe.”

The whole of Germany’s yield curve is now below zero -- the first major market exhibiting such a trait -- meaning the government is effectively being paid to borrow out to 30 years. That’s a reflection of dwindling expectations for inflation and growth over the coming years, while the European Central Bank is widely forecast to introduce a new wave of monetary stimulus next month.

The sale comes as Germany is priming the pumps for extra spending should an economic crisis hit. While the nation is confined to strict laws on running a fiscal deficit, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz suggested Germany could muster 50 billion euros ($55 billion) should a recession hit. The economy contracted in the second quarter.

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Bond market investors are not quite yet willing to be the Turkeys that vote for Christmas. Even the most bullish of momentum traders can see that locking in a zero return, at best, for maturities out to 2049 does not make for sense for long-term investors. However, it is also worth remembering that this situation is occurring in a global slowdown where growth is still positive. It portends even lower yields during a contraction.

 

 

European Stock Strategists Predict Selloff Will Only Worsen

This article by Namitha Jagadeesh for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Much like the rest of the world, investors in European equities have been whipsawed in August by headlines on the U.S.-China trade war. Making matters worse, the region’s companies have seen a stream of profit warnings, Germany’s edging closer to a recession, Italian politicians are at it again, and Brexit remains Brexit.

For months, strategists had been calling for European equities to rein in the strong rally that kicked off 2019, although there was little indication until recently the stock market would oblige. Their average annual predictions for the region’s two main gauges is slightly higher this month compared with July’s response, but still lower than current index levels.

As late as July, the Stoxx 600 was up 16% for the year, almost twice the gain forecasters now see for 2019. Since then, the region that catches a cold when the world sneezes is faring a lot worse.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Monetary policy beats most other factors most of the time has been one of the most enduring adages at this service. The ECB is believed to be readying a raft of policy support initiatives for its September meeting. Since the removal of QE and the tightening of the LTRO program were instrumental in the tightening of liquidity, it is reasonable to expect kickstarting the stimulus engine will reinvigorate animal spirits.

 

 

Twitter Helps China Push Agenda Abroad Despite Ban in Mainland

This article by Shelly Banjo and Sarah Frier for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

China’s ambassador to the U.S. tweeted that “radical protesters” were eroding the rule of law embraced by the #silentmajority of Hong Kongers. The Chinese Mission to the United Nations’ Twitter account asked protesters to “stop the violence, for a better #Hong Kong,” while social media accounts of Chinese embassies in Manila, India and the Maldives shared articles from China’s state media blaming Westerners for disrupting the city. “Separatists in Hong Kong kept in close contact with foreign elements,” one story says above a photo of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.

“We know China is adept at controlling domestic information, but now they are trying to use Western platforms like Twitter to control the narrative on the international stage,” said Jacob Wallis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s International Cyber Policy Centre.

It’s unclear if any of these diplomats were set up on the service by Twitter, but the state-backed attempt to discredit Hong Kong protesters continues to reach millions of global Twitter users. In many cases, the Chinese officials are promoting views similar to those in 936 accounts Twitter banned on Monday.

The practice of supporting Chinese officials who use Twitter to spread the Communist Party agenda highlights how difficult it is for the social media company to balance its commitment to root out disinformation and to allow the expression of varying opinions. It also raises concerns around why Twitter is helping Beijing make its case to a global audience when the service is banned in China, where dissenting voices are prohibited and officials sometimes detain users accessing the platform through virtual private networks.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

While in China last week my daughter and I tried a number of different apps to see if they worked on public wifi. Facebook, Instagram, Google, Twitter etc do not work. In fact, no English language search works on any browser with any kind of regularity. However, less well-known but popular social media apps like iFunny, Discord and Ameno seem to work fine. TikTok is an interesting case because it has a Chinese version which is completely independent of the English language version following Bytedance’s acquisition of Musically last year.

 

 

Eoin's personal portfolio: crypto long increased July 15th 2019

 

Eoin Treacy's view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided. 

 

 

2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The London Philharmonic Orchestra is holding a concert in David’s memory on October 5th October at the Royal Festival Hall. There is a reception between 5.30 and 6.45 in the Foyle Pavilion, Level 3, Green Side and subscribers are well to join David’s family there for light refreshments. Following the reception, we will move to the Beecham Bar, Blue Side, Level 5 for a short talk by Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO. 

If you wish to attend the concert as well, which includes a performance of Elgar’s Cello Concerto by the Young Musician of the Year, it begins at 7.30 and you may book tickets (£67) by telephone on 020 7840 4242 quoting the code Fuller Concert.

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected]  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

 

 

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