The German bank's analysts also kept their 'hold' recommendation unchanged for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE:RCL) but maintained Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE:NCLH) as a ‘buy’ highlighting its limited exposure to Asia.
According to the bank, the pandemic is affecting the cruise industry in two ways - the initial damage of cancellations and compensations, followed by a drop in future bookings.
FTSE 100-listed Carnival, owner of the Diamond Princess ship quarantined offshore Japan, said last week that a suspension of all Asian operations to the end of April would hit its 2020 results by US$0.55 to US$0.65 per share, including guest compensation.
In the year to 30 November, earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$4.34.
Australian couple quarantined on coronavirus cruise ship got two bottles of Pinot Noir delivered to their cabin via a drone from the Naked Wine Club. “Thank God for drones, the Japanese Coast Guard did not know what the fu– was going on.” https://t.co/k5ommnIS1o— Kim Zetter (@KimZetter) February 11, 2020
But looking at future bookings, the Berenberg analysts said the cruise companies may need to offer a US$50 discount per passenger to keep ships busy.
For Carnival, the total cut to full-year EPS would be 26% and 12% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, they added.
Royal Caribbean would get a 19% and 7% hit respectively, while Norwegian Cruise Line would be the best sector performer dropping by 11% and 6% respectively, the analysts added.
Shares in Carnival in London were flat at 3,071.74p on Wednesday morning.