Leading bank downgrades Hochschild and flags downside risks as Q4 looms for gold miners
Last updated: 07:45 19 Jan 2026 EST, First published: 07:34 19 Jan 2026 EST
Hochschild Mining PLC (LSE:HOC, OTCQX:HCHDF, FRA:H3M) has been downgraded to 'neutral' from 'overweight' by JPMorgan, which has also placed the stock on 'negative catalyst watch' as it urges investors to become more selective across European gold miners ahead of the fourth-quarter reporting season.
In a sector note, JPMorgan said it remains broadly bullish on gold equities but sees “some room for stock-specific downside risks” as results approach, including creeping cost inflation and the prospect of higher government royalties in countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Against that backdrop, the bank said it was reducing its conviction on Hochschild while maintaining a positive stance on preferred names.
JPMorgan reiterated 'overweight' recommendations on AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU) and Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), citing attractive valuations, mark-to-market upside versus consensus expectations and strong potential for excess cash returns across the subsector.
The bank said it continues to see several positive catalysts for EMEA gold miners, including consensus upgrades and improving capital returns, even as cost pressures build. It added that the group still trades at appealing valuation levels relative to the outlook for the metal.
JPMorgan’s commodities team said it remains bullish on gold prices, forecasting a year-end 2026 price of about $5,000 an ounce.
It has also raised its long-term gold price assumption to $3,850 an ounce, saying new positive catalysts for the sector remain on the horizon.
