JPMorgan sees 40% upside in Hochschild as gold surge powers bumper earnings outlook
Last updated: 08:15 12 Mar 2026 EDT, First published: 08:01 12 Mar 2026 EDT
Hochschild Mining PLC (LSE:HOC, OTCQX:HCHDF, FRA:H3M), the FTSE 250 precious metals producer, rose 4% to 674p on Thursday after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to 'overweight'.
The US investment bank also lifted its price target from 890p to 990p, pointing to forecast earnings more than doubling over the next two years against a backdrop of surging gold and silver prices.
The US investment bank, which had previously held a neutral stance on the stock, said Hochschild was an attractive entry point following a 20% fall in the share price over the past month, arguing the selloff had created a significant disconnect from the company's improving fundamentals.
Hochschild reported full-year 2025 results in line with JPMorgan and consensus expectations, with 2026 guidance for production, operating costs and capital expenditure unchanged from the update issued in the fourth quarter of last year.
With gold prices at elevated levels, JPMorgan now forecasts earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $1.1 billion in 2026 and $1.2 billion in 2027.
This would represent growth of around 90% and 100% respectively compared with 2025, placing the stock on an undemanding valuation of 4.2 times and 3.7 times those figures.
A key driver of the upgrade is Hochschild's growth pipeline, which the bank expects to deliver around 50% volume growth by 2030, taking production to approximately 450,000 gold equivalent ounces annually.
The most significant project is Monte Do Carmo in Brazil, which is expected to reach a final investment decision in mid-2026 and represents the largest single contributor to that production expansion.
JPMorgan raised its target valuation multiple from 4.0 times to 5.0 times 2026 earnings, citing the improving operational stability and growth visibility as justifying a re-rating, and said it remained structurally bullish on gold and gold equities more broadly.
