Crypto's landmark Clarity Act stalls in Senate as passage odds sink to 39%

Prediction market traders now put the chances of the Clarity Act becoming law this year at just 39%, down sharply from a peak above 80% in February.

The odds on Polymarket, a betting platform where users wager real money on future events, have slid as a once-smooth path through Congress has jammed.

The Clarity Act, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is the most ambitious attempt yet to write rules for the American cryptocurrency industry.

It would settle a decade-old turf war between two regulators, handing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over most crypto trading while leaving the securities watchdog a narrower role.

Supporters say it would replace years of regulation-by-enforcement with clear statutory rules for exchanges, developers and investors.

The bill has already come further than any previous crypto legislation.

The House passed it in July 2025 by 294 votes to 134, with more than 70 Democrats crossing the aisle, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in May.

The problem now is arithmetic and time.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, but the bill needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, meaning at least seven Democrats must back it.

Those votes are being held up by three unresolved fights, over developer protections, stablecoin rewards and, above all, ethics.

A financial disclosure released on 1 July showed President Donald Trump earned roughly $1.4 billion in crypto-related income during the first year of his second term, hardening Democratic demands for conflict-of-interest provisions.

The calendar is the other enemy.

The Senate returned from recess on 13 July with about 20 working days before it breaks for August, and no floor vote has yet been scheduled.

If the bill misses that window, 2026 passage becomes far harder, as lawmakers return in the autumn to a calendar dominated by midterm-election politics.

The bill is not dead.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not abandoned it, and industry lobbyists have been flying to Washington to press their case.

But with each day of inaction, the traders betting against it look a little more confident.