TNR Gold nears first royalty revenue as lithium, copper markets surge: analysts

TNR Gold Corp (TSX-V:TNR, FRA:TNW, OTC:TRRXF) is on the cusp of becoming a revenue-generating royalty company, according to a new report from Fundamental Research, with analysts citing rising lithium and copper prices as key drivers for near-term earnings.

The company, which focuses on royalties from projects operated by other mining firms, has seen its shares surge 240% year-over-year, significantly outperforming the BetaShares mining royalty ETF, up just 17% over the same period.

TNR’s portfolio includes the Shotgun gold project in Alaska, as well as royalties on two advanced South American projects: the Mariana lithium project in Argentina, owned by Ganfeng Lithium (SZSE: 002460), and the Los Azules copper-gold project, controlled by mining veteran Rob McEwen and his institutions.

Analysts at Fundamental Research noted that TNR is “awaiting its first royalty payment, expected this quarter, as Ganfeng began production at its Mariana lithium project last year.” Based on current lithium prices, the firm estimates TNR could earn around US$1.6 million annually from Mariana.

“Receiving this first payment will be a major milestone, marking TNR’s transition into a revenue-generating royalty company,” analysts wrote.

Lithium prices have rebounded strongly, up 109% year-over-year to US$23,000 per ton, although still below the 2022 peak of US$85,000 per ton. Analysts expect the rebound to continue, driven by electric vehicles, energy storage, and emerging sectors such as AI data centers, robotics, and automation.

TNR’s Los Azules copper-gold royalty is also drawing attention. McEwen completed a feasibility study in October 2025, confirming the project’s economic attractiveness, and the project was included in Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), granting tax and export benefits. Copper prices, meanwhile, have risen 34% year-over-year to an all-time high of US$5.82 per pound. Fundamental Research estimates TNR could earn US$5 million annually in royalties at conservative copper prices, rising to US$8 million at current spot prices, with construction planned to begin in 2026 and commercial production by 2029.

The Shotgun gold project in Alaska remains a medium-sized, high-grade deposit, with TNR seeking a joint venture or option partner to advance development. Analysts noted that while the property “could remain idle” without a partner, this approach “limits shareholder dilution” as no additional capital is currently required.

Fundamental Research reiterated its Buy rating on TNR, raising its fair value estimate from C$0.30 to C$0.35 per share. TNR “offers exposure to gold, lithium, and copper through projects in Alaska and Argentina, and is on the verge of earning its first royalty revenue,” analysts wrote, adding that “high metal prices, combined with project milestones, position TNR for significant revenue potential.”